Why I am saying this? I just simply look at the dynamics of the conflicts in the Middle East. Before the actual military actions begin one must look for the actions the of psychological war. Both enemies and victims are presenting themselves as giants, spitting hellfire and frighten others with apocalypse. The result – „business as usual“.
Who are giants and who are dwarfs in this conflict? Iran, terrorist organizations “Hezbollah” and “Hamas”, “Al-Qaeda”, Syria are dwarfs. Yes, they can get nasty and play dirty but they have no major influence in the West-East conflict.
For example, Iran still knows its place in the world, so it can assume that the possibilities to engage in military action against USA and NATO are down to zero. It is like it was with North Korea: it acted like a drunk for a while and – nothing. “Again” it has won against the West, and “again” it seeks peace with South Korea.
Iran is threatening to start positional-terrorist war with the West but it means nothing. We have to separate interests from threats. And Iran has no threats. So far.
If the West hits Syria symbolically (it seems they talk only about symbolical action), “Hezbollah” would not start attack on Israel. A few weeks ago a couple of missiles were launched form the northern part of Lebanon, and Israel answered in the same way. How did it end? In silence.
We have to remember what the leader of this terrorist organization said after Second Lebanon war: “If I knew the consequences of Israel attack against us, I would have not started this in the first place”.
This means that no one will start anything now. Because the leaders of Israel always say what would they do to with the enemy and they keep their word. Israel for almost 70 years is in military situation and the enemies were proven that this is true. Otherwise, there would not be Israel.
The talks of Syrian leaders – are kind of the same expressions of psychological war. The nuclear reactors already do not exist after Israel launched an attack in 2007, Syria did not do anything. Anti-missile weapons came to Lebanon – Syria did not do anything. It is safe to assume that Syria will not do anything this time again.
But can we trust the rationality of Syrian dictator Assad? When he will realize that end is near, he will try to make the apocalypse. The time will show. But Syria’s war with Israel would be the last Syria’s war. One lunatic causes the death of thousands. Even if the regime falls, the problems will not be solved in this country. But there will be no apocalypse. The Arab League does not support Assad. And their position is important both to Russia, Iran and “Hezbollah”.
Iran knows that it is not clever to engage in this conflict, Russia knows that it is essential to be friendly with Arabs. Therefore, there will be no World War III because of Syria. This is the psychological war for the hearts and minds. Maybe it is better than the alternative – total chaos.
Those who have power do not bend for provocations. The fact that the range of the attack against Syria is revealed is only to calm Russia down. It is like saying that there is no threat to Russia’s geopolitical interests in this region. Still, Russia has decided to send a couple of ships saying that this was an old-planned mission. If they need a serious conflict – two ships are not enough because Syria is not Cuba. Turkey is also ready to participate in “punishing Syria”. The talks of Russia about the norms of the international law are worth nothing. Russia says it just to say it because it still controls the occupied part of George. Moreover, the fantasies of some Russia political analyst that Russia may occupy the Baltic States are also worth nothing. No attention should be paid because nothing like this will happen. Russia wants other to fear and panic like always.
There are no equals to the NATO in military power sense. The fact is that this power does not threaten Russia or China with military actions. The West fights those two using economic-political measures. The most important thing – the nuclear weapons play deterring part. So the symbolic attack on Syria will have no major consequences and it is going to be a lesson to be learned or not. And that is it. All parts of this conflict will check their positions but the only ones to gain benefit from this are oil and finance speculators. As always.